FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Bartol

Franjic

LBCroatia · Venezia FC

№ 370998Emerging €1M +0.29

Player dossierSerie A

BartolFranjic

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Venezia FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Franjic at €1.4M. Model A, which never saw Franjic during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 34% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €890k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.29A €1M▲ +0.45B €890k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,270
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
15/20
Min / app
64
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Franjic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.4MModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Bartol Franjic's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 62nd76thGoals68thAssists17thMinutes35thStarts1stRecent62ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median76th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€6.5M
Sept 2022
Model target
€1.4M
Dec 2025
Valuations
17
6 club changes
Dec 2025€1.4MVenezia FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.4M, Venezia FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-16€50kGNK Dinamo Zagreb II
2019-12-27€50kGNK Dinamo Zagreb II
2020-07-27€350kGNK Dinamo Zagreb II
2020-12-28€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2021-06-10€3.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2021-12-30€4.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2022-06-06€4.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2022-09-21€6.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-11-09€6.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-03-29€4MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-06-22€3MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-12-14€2.5MSV Darmstadt 98
2024-03-27€2MSV Darmstadt 98
2024-05-29€1.8MSV Darmstadt 98
2024-12-17€1.8MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-06-09€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-12-11€1.4MVenezia FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.292

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 14% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 42% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Franjic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).