FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Toni

Lato

LBSpain · RCD Mallorca

№ 320271Emerging €1.3M +0.06

Player dossierLaLiga

ToniLato

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
RCD Mallorca
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
171 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lato at €1.4M. Model A, which never saw Lato during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 6% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.06A €1.3M▲ +0.13B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,405
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
17/29
Min / app
48
Cards
4Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lato…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.4MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Toni Lato's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 21st, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals65thAssists21stMinutes14thStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.06 this player0.04 defender median65th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2016
Peak
€8M
Jan 2018
Model target
€1.4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1.4MRCD MallorcaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.4M, RCD Mallorca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€200kValencia Mestalla
2016-10-27€250kValencia Mestalla
2017-02-02€300kValencia Mestalla
2017-06-05€3MValencia Mestalla
2018-01-01€8MValencia CF
2018-05-30€8MValencia CF
2018-10-31€6MValencia CF
2018-12-21€6MValencia CF
2019-02-28€5MValencia CF
2019-06-11€5MValencia CF
2019-12-18€2MPSV Eindhoven
2020-04-08€1.6MCA Osasuna
2020-10-08€1.5MValencia CF
2021-01-05€3MValencia CF
2021-06-10€2.5MValencia CF
2021-12-30€2.5MValencia CF
2022-06-03€1.5MValencia CF
2022-09-23€2.5MValencia CF
2022-11-07€2.5MValencia CF
2023-06-13€2.5MValencia CF
2023-12-22€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2024-06-07€3.5MRCD Mallorca
2024-12-27€2.8MRCD Mallorca
2025-03-21€2MRCD Mallorca
2025-06-09€1.8MRCD Mallorca
2025-12-12€1.5MRCD Mallorca
2026-06-05€1.4MRCD Mallorca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.057

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 18% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 42% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lato appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).