FairValue

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Pablo

Rosario

DMDominican Republic · FC Porto

№ 370791Established €15.5M −0.66

Player dossierLiga Portugal

PabloRosario

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Porto
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Dominican Republic
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rosario at €8M. Model A, which never saw Rosario during training, estimates €15.5M: the market value is 49% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.94. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.66A €15.5M▼ −0.24B €10.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
4,699
Goals
6
Assists
3
Started
50/70
Min / app
67
Cards
16Y 2R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rosario…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €15.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pablo Rosario's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 96th61stGoals32ndAssists83rdMinutes55thStarts80thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2015
Peak
€13M
Jun 2019
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
May 2026€8MFC PortoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€25kAlmere City FC
2016-02-05€100kAlmere City FC
2016-07-15€200kAlmere City FC
2017-02-02€300kPSV Eindhoven U21
2017-06-07€400kPSV Eindhoven U21
2018-01-17€800kPSV Eindhoven
2018-06-12€1MPSV Eindhoven
2018-10-04€5MPSV Eindhoven
2018-12-28€10MPSV Eindhoven
2019-06-12€13MPSV Eindhoven
2019-12-18€11MPSV Eindhoven
2020-03-12€9MPSV Eindhoven
2020-04-08€7MPSV Eindhoven
2020-10-14€7MPSV Eindhoven
2021-03-09€6.5MPSV Eindhoven
2021-05-19€6MPSV Eindhoven
2021-12-16€6MOGC Nice
2022-03-23€8MOGC Nice
2022-05-30€10MOGC Nice
2022-09-19€8MOGC Nice
2022-11-02€7MOGC Nice
2023-06-27€6MOGC Nice
2023-12-18€7MOGC Nice
2024-06-03€8MOGC Nice
2024-12-10€8MOGC Nice
2025-06-03€8MOGC Nice
2025-12-18€8MFC Porto
2026-05-28€8MFC Porto

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.664

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 84% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rosario appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).