FairValue

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Portrait of Loïs Openda

Loïs

Openda

CFBelgium · Juventus FC

№ 368887Elite €17.7M +0.34

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierSerie A

LoïsOpenda

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Juventus FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Belgium
Age
26
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Openda at €25M. Model A, which never saw Openda during training, estimates €17.7M: the market value is 41% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €17.7M▲ +0.38B €17.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
4,639
Goals
15
Assists
11
Started
51/82
Min / app
57
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Openda…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €17.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Loïs Openda's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 86th55thGoals74thAssists87thMinutes55thStarts43rdRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,639 this player2,242 attacker median87th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2018
Peak
€60M
Mar 2024
Model target
€25M
May 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
May 2026€25MJuventus FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €25M, Juventus FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-08-01€200kClub Brugge KV
2018-09-11€600kClub Brugge KV
2018-12-27€900kClub Brugge KV
2019-03-04€1MClub Brugge KV
2019-06-10€3MClub Brugge KV
2019-09-13€4.5MClub Brugge KV
2019-12-13€6MClub Brugge KV
2020-02-11€4.5MClub Brugge KV
2020-04-08€4MClub Brugge KV
2020-10-14€4MVitesse Arnhem
2021-01-06€3.5MVitesse Arnhem
2021-03-09€3MVitesse Arnhem
2021-05-19€3MVitesse Arnhem
2022-01-05€4MVitesse Arnhem
2022-03-17€5.5MVitesse Arnhem
2022-06-08€7.5MVitesse Arnhem
2022-09-19€12MRC Lens
2022-11-02€12MRC Lens
2023-03-27€20MRC Lens
2023-06-27€35MRC Lens
2023-10-18€45MRB Leipzig
2023-12-14€55MRB Leipzig
2024-03-27€60MRB Leipzig
2024-05-29€60MRB Leipzig
2024-12-20€60MRB Leipzig
2025-06-05€50MRB Leipzig
2025-10-07€45MJuventus FC
2025-12-23€40MJuventus FC
2026-03-24€32MJuventus FC
2026-05-29€25MJuventus FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.344

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 88% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 90% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Openda appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).