FairValue

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Thierry

Correia

RBPortugal · Valencia CF

№ 367466Established €3.4M −0.31

Player dossierLaLiga

ThierryCorreia

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Valencia CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Portugal
Age
27
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Correia at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Correia during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €3.4M▲ +0.40B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
2,221
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
26/36
Min / app
62
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Correia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Thierry Correia's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 30th18thGoals72ndAssists38thMinutes30thStarts43rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.08 this player0.04 defender median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
May 2019
Peak
€14M
Nov 2022
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
1 club change
Jun 2026€2.5MValencia CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Valencia CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-13€400kSporting CP U23
2019-09-10€6MValencia CF
2019-12-20€3MValencia CF
2020-04-08€2.7MValencia CF
2020-10-08€2.5MValencia CF
2021-01-05€2.5MValencia CF
2021-03-19€6MValencia CF
2021-06-10€6MValencia CF
2021-10-13€9MValencia CF
2021-12-30€8MValencia CF
2022-06-03€8MValencia CF
2022-09-23€12MValencia CF
2022-11-07€14MValencia CF
2023-03-23€12MValencia CF
2023-06-13€8MValencia CF
2023-12-22€8MValencia CF
2024-03-21€6MValencia CF
2024-06-07€6MValencia CF
2024-12-27€6MValencia CF
2025-06-09€3MValencia CF
2025-12-12€3MValencia CF
2026-06-05€2.5MValencia CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.312

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 34% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Correia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).