FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Rodrigo

Pinho

CFBrazil · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 366278Emerging €247k −0.50

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RodrigoPinho

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
35
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pinho at €150k. Model A, which never saw Pinho during training, estimates €247k: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €604k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €247k▼ −1.39B €604k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
2,853
Goals
9
Assists
1
Started
30/62
Min / app
46
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pinho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €247k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rodrigo Pinho's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 12th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 46th, European club minutes 28th54thGoals12thAssists64thMinutes32ndStarts46thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,853 this player2,242 attacker median64th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2015
Peak
€2.5M
Jan 2021
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
29
6 club changes
May 2026€150kCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€100kSC Braga
2015-10-07€300kSC Braga
2016-02-24€300kCD Nacional
2016-07-29€300kSC Braga
2017-02-22€600kSC Braga
2017-06-26€600kSC Braga
2017-11-06€900kCS Marítimo
2018-02-07€1.3MCS Marítimo
2018-06-13€1.5MCS Marítimo
2019-01-11€1MCS Marítimo
2019-06-07€700kCS Marítimo
2019-12-30€700kCS Marítimo
2020-04-08€550kCS Marítimo
2020-08-17€900kCS Marítimo
2020-10-22€1.3MCS Marítimo
2021-01-28€2.5MCS Marítimo
2021-05-21€2.5MCS Marítimo
2021-12-27€2.5MSL Benfica
2022-05-31€2MSL Benfica
2022-11-01€2MSL Benfica
2023-04-07€2MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-07-25€1.3MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-12-11€1MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2024-03-08€800kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-06-06€400kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-12-19€350kCF Estrela Amadora
2025-05-30€250kCF Estrela Amadora
2025-12-18€200kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€150kCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.498

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 4% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 2% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pinho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).