FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Tomané

CFPortugal · Avs Futebol

№ 139393Emerging €242k −0.48

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Tomané

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Avs Futebol
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
33
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tomané at €150k. Model A, which never saw Tomané during training, estimates €242k: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €479k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.48A €242k▼ −1.16B €479k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,685
Goals
7
Assists
1
Started
42/53
Min / app
70
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tomané…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €242k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Tomané's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 28th, Assists per 90 11th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 28th28thGoals11thAssists77thMinutes82ndStarts74thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

79% this player59% attacker median82nd percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2010
Peak
€2.5M
Jul 2015
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
36
10 club changes
May 2026€150kAvs FutebolValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-10-01€100kVitória Guimarães SC B
2011-06-28€100kVitória Guimarães SC B
2013-03-18€400kVitória Guimarães SC B
2013-10-08€800kVitória Guimarães SC
2014-02-26€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2014-07-25€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2015-02-17€2.3MVitória Guimarães SC
2015-07-01€2.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2016-02-11€1.2MMSV Duisburg
2016-03-22€700kMSV Duisburg
2016-07-01€500kPanetolikos
2016-12-21€500kPanetolikos
2017-06-26€600kFC Arouca
2018-02-07€900kCD Tondela
2018-06-13€1MCD Tondela
2019-01-11€1MCD Tondela
2019-06-07€2MCD Tondela
2019-10-28€2MRed Star Belgrade
2020-04-08€1.6MRed Star Belgrade
2020-06-28€1.2MRed Star Belgrade
2020-12-30€1MSamsunspor
2021-03-23€800kSamsunspor
2021-06-02€600kSamsunspor
2022-01-17€575kSamsunspor
2022-03-17€700kSamsunspor
2022-06-10€650kSamsunspor
2022-11-15€500kSamsunspor
2023-04-03€325kSamsunspor
2023-06-23€275kSamsunspor
2023-12-28€275kAPOEL Nicosia
2024-03-26€250kAPOEL Nicosia
2024-05-17€200kAPOEL Nicosia
2024-12-19€200kSC Farense
2025-05-30€200kSC Farense
2025-12-18€200kAvs Futebol
2026-05-28€150kAvs Futebol

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.479

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 4% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 2% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tomané appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).