MoussaWagué

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: Panserraikos
League: Super League
Nationality: Senegal
Age: 27
Height: 177 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wagué at €300k. Model A, which never saw Wagué during training, estimates €159k: the market value is 88% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €382k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 15
Minutes: 698
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 8/15
Min / app: 47
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wagué…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jul 2016
Peak: €7.5M; Dec 2019
Model target: €300k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 26; 10 club changes

Jun 2026€300kPanserraikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Panserraikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-07-15	€50k	Unknown
2017-01-21	€200k	KAS Eupen
2017-03-30	€400k	KAS Eupen
2017-06-06	€500k	KAS Eupen
2017-10-20	€800k	KAS Eupen
2018-01-09	€1M	KAS Eupen
2018-06-03	€1M	KAS Eupen
2018-07-16	€3M	KAS Eupen
2019-02-19	€3M	FC Barcelona B
2019-06-29	€5M	FC Barcelona B
2019-12-20	€7.5M	FC Barcelona
2020-04-08	€6.7M	OGC Nice
2020-10-12	€6M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2021-02-12	€4M	FC Barcelona
2021-06-10	€4M	FC Barcelona
2021-12-30	€2M	FC Barcelona
2022-06-03	€1.5M	FC Barcelona
2022-11-08	€1M	HNK Gorica
2023-03-28	€800k	Without Club
2023-12-28	€800k	Anorthosis Famagusta
2024-05-17	€750k	Anorthosis Famagusta
2024-12-18	€600k	Panserraikos
2025-05-23	€500k	Panserraikos
2025-12-12	€400k	Panserraikos
2026-03-06	€350k	Panserraikos
2026-06-04	€300k	Panserraikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.634

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 20% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Wagué appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).