FairValue

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Andrey

Mostovoy

LWRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 362570Established €6.3M −0.59

Player dossierPremier Liga

AndreyMostovoy

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
28
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mostovoy at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Mostovoy during training, estimates €6.3M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.59A €6.3M▼ −0.54B €6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
3,345
Goals
18
Assists
12
Started
38/69
Min / app
48
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mostovoy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €6.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andrey Mostovoy's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 28th86thGoals93rdAssists72ndMinutes44thStarts53rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.32 this player0.15 attacker median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2015
Peak
€4M
Dec 2024
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
May 2026€3.5MZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-25€50kLokomotiv Moscow II
2016-07-01€50kFK Dolgoprudnyi
2016-10-11€100kFC Khimki
2016-12-28€150kFC Khimki
2017-06-01€200kFC Khimki
2017-12-05€250kFC Khimki
2018-06-06€350kFC Khimki
2018-12-20€400kFC Khimki
2019-06-14€400kZenit 2 St. Petersburg
2019-12-23€1MFC Sochi
2020-03-30€2MFC Sochi
2020-04-08€1.6MFC Sochi
2020-07-29€2MFC Sochi
2020-10-19€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-12-29€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-05-26€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-29€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-06-02€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-09-12€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-11-21€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-06-14€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-12-13€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-12-16€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.594

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 81% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mostovoy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).