FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Isi Palazón

Isi

Palazón

SSSpain · Rayo Vallecano

№ 362086Established €2.9M −0.03

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

IsiPalazón

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
169 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Palazón at €2.8M. Model A, which never saw Palazón during training, estimates €2.9M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €2.9M▲ +0.42B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,768
Goals
8
Assists
9
Started
54/75
Min / app
64
Cards
17Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Palazón…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.8MModel A €2.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Isi Palazón's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 71st, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 57th23rdGoals59thAssists89thMinutes71stStarts88thRecent57thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,768 this player2,242 attacker median89th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Aug 2016
Peak
€12M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
2 club changes
Jun 2026€2.8MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.8M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€250kReal Murcia CF
2017-02-02€250kReal Murcia CF
2017-06-30€200kReal Murcia CF
2018-01-01€200kSD Ponferradina
2018-05-30€200kSD Ponferradina
2019-02-19€150kSD Ponferradina
2019-06-29€250kSD Ponferradina
2019-09-10€300kSD Ponferradina
2019-12-20€700kSD Ponferradina
2020-04-08€550kRayo Vallecano
2020-10-08€700kRayo Vallecano
2020-11-23€1MRayo Vallecano
2021-01-08€1MRayo Vallecano
2021-06-24€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2021-12-30€2MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€3MRayo Vallecano
2022-09-23€5MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€7.5MRayo Vallecano
2023-03-23€10MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€12MRayo Vallecano
2023-12-22€12MRayo Vallecano
2024-03-21€10MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€8MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€4MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€3MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€2.8MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.034

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 39% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Palazón appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).