FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Odysseus

Velanas

AMNetherlands · PEC Zwolle

№ 360520Emerging €387k +0.35

Player dossierEredivisie

OdysseusVelanas

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
PEC Zwolle
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Velanas at €550k. Model A, which never saw Velanas during training, estimates €387k: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €824k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €387k▼ −0.40B €824k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
2,035
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
19/43
Min / app
47
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Velanas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €550k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €550kModel A €387k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Odysseus Velanas's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 30th67thGoals65thAssists37thMinutes15thStarts17thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.08 midfielder median67th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2016
Peak
€750k
May 2024
Model target
€550k
May 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
May 2026€550kPEC ZwolleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €550k, PEC Zwolle. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€25kFC Utrecht U21
2017-02-02€100kFC Utrecht U21
2017-06-21€200kFC Utrecht U21
2018-01-17€200kFC Utrecht
2018-06-12€250kFC Utrecht
2018-12-28€250kFC Utrecht
2019-01-21€250kFC Utrecht
2019-06-20€200kHelmond Sport
2020-06-29€325kFC Utrecht U21
2020-10-24€325kFC Utrecht
2020-12-31€400kFC Utrecht
2021-05-19€400kFC Utrecht
2021-10-12€400kNAC Breda
2022-01-12€375kNAC Breda
2022-06-23€425kNAC Breda
2023-04-03€600kNAC Breda
2023-07-04€600kNAC Breda
2023-12-15€600kPEC Zwolle
2024-05-31€750kPEC Zwolle
2024-12-17€650kPEC Zwolle
2025-05-28€550kPEC Zwolle
2025-12-02€500kPEC Zwolle
2026-05-28€550kPEC Zwolle

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.352

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 28% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Velanas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).