FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Walid

Ould-Chikh

AMNetherlands · Heracles Almelo

№ 597104Emerging €615k −0.11

Player dossierEredivisie

WalidOuld-Chikh

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Heracles Almelo
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ould-Chikh at €550k. Model A, which never saw Ould-Chikh during training, estimates €615k: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.11A €615k▼ −1.10B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,713
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
19/27
Min / app
63
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ould-Chikh…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €550k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €550kModel A €615k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Walid Ould-Chikh's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 30th57thGoals93rdAssists30thMinutes52ndStarts56thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.09 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Mar 2022
Peak
€800k
Jun 2024
Model target
€550k
May 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
May 2026€550kHeracles AlmeloValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €550k, Heracles Almelo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-24€25kFC Volendam
2022-06-23€250kFC Volendam
2022-11-11€300kFC Volendam
2023-06-23€400kFC Volendam
2024-01-08€700kRoda JC Kerkrade
2024-06-10€800kRoda JC Kerkrade
2024-12-19€800kEintracht Braunschweig
2025-06-19€650kEintracht Braunschweig
2025-12-02€650kHeracles Almelo
2026-05-28€550kHeracles Almelo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.111

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 28% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ould-Chikh appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).