FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Domagoj

Bradarić

LBCroatia · Hellas Verona

№ 357796Emerging €2.5M −0.52

Player dossierSerie A

DomagojBradarić

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Hellas Verona
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
26
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bradarić at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Bradarić during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 41% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €2.5M▼ −0.78B €3.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
4,012
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
47/59
Min / app
68
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bradarić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Domagoj Bradarić's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals39thAssists69thMinutes44thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,012 this player2,860 defender median69th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Mar 2019
Peak
€7M
Jun 2023
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
20
3 club changes
May 2026€1.5MHellas VeronaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Hellas Verona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-03-11€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2019-09-27€6.5MLOSC Lille
2019-12-19€6.5MLOSC Lille
2020-04-08€5.8MLOSC Lille
2020-10-15€6MLOSC Lille
2021-05-28€6MLOSC Lille
2021-10-08€5MLOSC Lille
2021-12-16€4MLOSC Lille
2022-05-30€3.5MLOSC Lille
2022-09-27€5MUS Salernitana 1919
2022-11-11€5MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-06-15€7MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-12-20€6.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-06-05€5MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-10-18€4MHellas Verona
2024-12-18€4MHellas Verona
2025-06-17€4MHellas Verona
2025-10-07€3MHellas Verona
2025-12-23€2.5MHellas Verona
2026-05-29€1.5MHellas Verona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.519

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bradarić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).