FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Daichi Kamada

Daichi

Kamada

AMJapan · Crystal Palace

№ 356141Elite €13.2M −0.28

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DaichiKamada

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
Japan
Age
29
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kamada at €10M. Model A, which never saw Kamada during training, estimates €13.2M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.28A €13.2M▲ +0.60B €5.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
4,211
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
46/72
Min / app
58
Cards
9Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kamada…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Daichi Kamada's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 61st21stGoals36thAssists77thMinutes40thStarts71stRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,211 this player2,607 midfielder median77th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2015
Peak
€30M
Nov 2022
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
Jun 2026€10MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-12€50kSagan Tosu
2015-07-01€200kSagan Tosu
2016-02-25€400kSagan Tosu
2017-03-25€750kSagan Tosu
2017-10-18€1.3MEintracht Frankfurt
2017-12-28€1MEintracht Frankfurt
2018-06-05€1MEintracht Frankfurt
2018-12-27€3MSint-Truidense VV
2019-06-10€4.5MSint-Truidense VV
2019-10-02€9MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-12-17€10MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-04-08€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-07-08€12MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-11-26€16MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-02-10€16MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-06-09€25MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-12-22€22MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-06-09€22MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-11-09€30MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-06-22€27MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-20€20MSS Lazio
2024-03-12€15MSS Lazio
2024-06-05€18MSS Lazio
2024-12-16€15MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€12MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€12MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€10MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.276

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kamada appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).