FairValue

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Portrait of Mathias Jensen

Mathias

Jensen

CMDenmark · Brentford FC

№ 319859Elite €11.3M −0.12

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MathiasJensen

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Brentford FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
30
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jensen at €10M. Model A, which never saw Jensen during training, estimates €11.3M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €11.3M▲ +0.50B €6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
3,709
Goals
5
Assists
5
Started
40/68
Min / app
55
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jensen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €11.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mathias Jensen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 30th63rdGoals61stAssists69thMinutes32ndStarts86thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,750 this player1,541 midfielder median86th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2015
Peak
€30M
Dec 2023
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MBrentford FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-02€50kFC Nordsjaelland
2016-01-21€50kFC Nordsjaelland
2016-08-12€150kFC Nordsjaelland
2016-12-12€150kFC Nordsjaelland
2017-03-27€300kFC Nordsjaelland
2017-06-21€400kFC Nordsjaelland
2017-12-18€700kFC Nordsjaelland
2018-06-02€1.5MFC Nordsjaelland
2018-08-09€5MCelta de Vigo
2018-12-21€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2019-06-11€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2019-10-17€3.5MBrentford FC
2020-02-27€4MBrentford FC
2020-04-08€3.2MBrentford FC
2020-10-15€3.2MBrentford FC
2020-12-22€3.8MBrentford FC
2021-03-10€6MBrentford FC
2021-05-26€8MBrentford FC
2021-12-23€8MBrentford FC
2022-06-15€10MBrentford FC
2022-09-15€12MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€14MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€22MBrentford FC
2023-10-09€28MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€30MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€28MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€25MBrentford FC
2025-03-18€16MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€14MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€12MBrentford FC
2026-06-03€10MBrentford FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.118

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jensen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).