FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Lincoln

AMBrazil · FC Alverca

№ 351738Established €1.7M +0.73

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Lincoln

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Alverca
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lincoln at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Lincoln during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 108% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.73A €1.7M▲ +0.78B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,435
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
30/31
Min / app
79
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lincoln…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lincoln's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 30th46thGoals80thAssists47thMinutes96thStarts78thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player69% midfielder median96th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
May 2015
Peak
€6M
Oct 2022
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
28
7 club changes
May 2026€3.5MFC AlvercaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, FC Alverca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-05-31€750kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2015-12-15€750kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2016-05-27€750kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2016-11-28€750kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2017-09-03€500kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2018-02-05€500kCaykur Rizespor
2018-05-30€500kCaykur Rizespor
2019-02-18€500kGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2019-10-11€500kCD Santa Clara
2019-12-30€700kCD Santa Clara
2020-04-08€625kCD Santa Clara
2020-08-17€2MCD Santa Clara
2021-01-28€1.6MCD Santa Clara
2021-05-21€2MCD Santa Clara
2021-12-27€3MCD Santa Clara
2022-03-10€5MCD Santa Clara
2022-05-31€5MCD Santa Clara
2022-10-27€6MFenerbahce
2023-03-14€6MFenerbahce
2023-06-08€5.5MFenerbahce
2023-09-27€4MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€3.3MFenerbahce
2024-03-28€3.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2024-06-17€3.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2024-12-09€4MRed Bull Bragantino
2025-05-27€3.5MHull City
2025-12-18€3.5MFC Alverca
2026-05-28€3.5MFC Alverca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.730

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 71% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lincoln appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).