FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Odsonne Édouard

Odsonne

Édouard

CFFrance · RC Lens

№ 344152Elite €17.1M −0.36

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLigue 1

OdsonneÉdouard

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
RC Lens
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Édouard at €12M. Model A, which never saw Édouard during training, estimates €17.1M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €17.1M▲ +0.77B €5.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,984
Goals
12
Assists
3
Started
27/37
Min / app
54
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Édouard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €17.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Odsonne Édouard's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 73rd, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 57th92ndGoals46thAssists44thMinutes73rdStarts68thRecent57thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.54 this player0.26 attacker median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2016
Peak
€20M
Oct 2023
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
6 club changes
Jun 2026€12MRC LensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, RC Lens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-13€250kParis Saint-Germain
2016-11-01€800kFC Toulouse
2017-01-16€1.5MFC Toulouse
2017-06-01€1.5MParis Saint-Germain
2018-03-04€1.5MCeltic FC
2018-06-04€1.5MCeltic FC
2018-08-08€2.5MCeltic FC
2019-01-03€3MCeltic FC
2019-08-20€7.5MCeltic FC
2020-02-05€15MCeltic FC
2020-04-08€13.5MCeltic FC
2020-07-21€15MCeltic FC
2021-01-18€15MCeltic FC
2021-06-28€17MCeltic FC
2021-12-23€17MCrystal Palace
2022-06-15€17MCrystal Palace
2022-09-15€15MCrystal Palace
2022-11-03€17MCrystal Palace
2023-06-20€15MCrystal Palace
2023-10-09€20MCrystal Palace
2023-12-19€20MCrystal Palace
2024-05-27€18MCrystal Palace
2024-12-16€14MLeicester City
2025-03-18€10MLeicester City
2025-05-30€8MLeicester City
2025-10-10€6MRC Lens
2025-12-15€8MRC Lens
2026-03-27€12MRC Lens
2026-06-01€12MRC Lens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.357

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 79% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Édouard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).