FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Ben Godfrey

Ben

Godfrey

CBEngland · Bröndby IF

№ 343475Established €650k +2.04

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSuperliga

BenGodfrey

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Bröndby IF
League
Superliga
Nationality
England
Age
28
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Godfrey at €5M. Model A, which never saw Godfrey during training, estimates €650k: the market value is 670% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×7.70. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €855k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +2.04A €650k▲ +1.77B €855k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
775
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
8/14
Min / app
55
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Godfrey…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €650k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ben Godfrey's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 67th18thGoals17thAssists7thMinutes12thStarts9thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

6% this player0% defender median67th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2017
Peak
€25M
Oct 2020
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
May 2026€5MBröndby IFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Bröndby IF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-24€100kShrewsbury Town
2018-09-24€1.5MNorwich City
2019-02-27€3.5MNorwich City
2019-06-28€6MNorwich City
2019-09-12€9MNorwich City
2019-12-10€13MNorwich City
2020-04-08€11.5MNorwich City
2020-07-30€16MNorwich City
2020-10-13€25MEverton FC
2021-03-18€25MEverton FC
2021-05-28€25MEverton FC
2021-12-23€25MEverton FC
2022-03-29€22MEverton FC
2022-06-15€20MEverton FC
2022-11-03€18MEverton FC
2023-03-16€15MEverton FC
2023-06-20€13MEverton FC
2023-12-19€8MEverton FC
2024-05-27€10MEverton FC
2024-12-18€8MAtalanta BC
2025-05-30€6MIpswich Town
2025-12-03€5.5MSheffield United
2026-05-25€5MBröndby IF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+2.041

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 93% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Godfrey appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).