FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Georgios

Giannoutsos

CBGreece · POT Iraklis Thessaloniki

№ 342172Emerging €368k −0.20

Player dossierSuper League

GeorgiosGiannoutsos

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
POT Iraklis Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
27
Height
183 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Giannoutsos at €300k. Model A, which never saw Giannoutsos during training, estimates €368k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €521k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €368k▼ −0.55B €521k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,824
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
20/22
Min / app
83
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Giannoutsos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €368k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Georgios Giannoutsos's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists30thMinutes72ndStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

91% this player83% defender median72nd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2017
Peak
€300k
May 2025
Model target
€300k
Dec 2025
Valuations
17
4 club changes
Dec 2025€300kPOT Iraklis ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €300k, POT Iraklis Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-11€50kAEK Athens
2017-05-11€50kAEK Athens
2017-08-21€150kAEK Athens
2017-12-18€200kAEK Athens
2018-05-22€200kAEK Athens
2018-12-07€200kAEK Athens
2019-05-21€200kAEK Athens
2021-06-28€250kAO Episkopi Rethymnou
2021-12-28€250kAEK Athens B
2022-06-27€250kAEK Athens B
2023-09-21€150kPAS Lamia 1964
2023-12-20€150kPAS Lamia 1964
2024-05-30€150kPAS Lamia 1964
2024-09-26€250kPAS Lamia 1964
2024-12-18€250kPAS Lamia 1964
2025-05-23€300kPAS Lamia 1964
2025-12-29€300kPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.205

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 20% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Giannoutsos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).