FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Umut

Meraş

LBTürkiye · Eyüpspor

№ 341549Emerging €749k −0.63

Player dossierSüper Lig

UmutMeraş

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Meraş at €400k. Model A, which never saw Meraş during training, estimates €749k: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €809k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.63A €749k▼ −0.70B €809k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,735
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
41/54
Min / app
69
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Meraş…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €749k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Umut Meraş's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 30th44thGoals68thAssists65thMinutes37thStarts59thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.07 this player0.04 defender median68th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jan 2015
Peak
€2.5M
Oct 2021
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
May 2026€400kEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-05€300kBoluspor
2015-06-08€350kBoluspor
2016-01-04€400kBoluspor
2016-07-14€400kBoluspor
2017-01-09€300kBoluspor
2017-06-30€300kBoluspor
2018-02-05€200kBoluspor
2018-05-30€350kBoluspor
2019-01-04€600kBursaspor
2019-06-04€800kBursaspor
2019-09-30€1MLe Havre AC
2020-01-06€1MLe Havre AC
2020-04-08€800kLe Havre AC
2020-08-14€1MLe Havre AC
2020-11-11€1.5MLe Havre AC
2021-05-25€2.2MLe Havre AC
2021-10-12€2.5MBesiktas JK
2022-01-04€2.3MBesiktas JK
2022-03-31€2.4MBesiktas JK
2022-06-01€2.1MBesiktas JK
2022-10-27€1.6MBesiktas JK
2023-03-14€1.4MBesiktas JK
2023-06-08€1MBesiktas JK
2023-09-27€750kBesiktas JK
2023-12-21€600kBesiktas JK
2024-03-15€475kBesiktas JK
2024-05-31€375kBesiktas JK
2024-10-04€450kEyüpspor
2024-12-23€400kEyüpspor
2025-03-20€400kEyüpspor
2025-06-18€450kEyüpspor
2025-12-17€400kEyüpspor
2026-05-21€400kEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.628

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 15% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Meraş appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).