FairValue

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Portrait of Noussair Mazraoui

Noussair

Mazraoui

RBMorocco · Manchester United

№ 340456Elite €20.8M −0.14

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

NoussairMazraoui

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Morocco
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mazraoui at €18M. Model A, which never saw Mazraoui during training, estimates €20.8M: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.14A €20.8M▲ +0.29B €13.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
5,330
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
62/74
Min / app
72
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mazraoui…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €20.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Noussair Mazraoui's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 53rd, Minutes, last 365 days 28th, European club minutes 87th18thGoals57thAssists87thMinutes53rdStarts28thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,330 this player2,860 defender median87th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2016
Peak
€32M
Dec 2024
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
3 club changes
Jun 2026€18MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€25kAjax Amsterdam U21
2017-02-02€75kAjax Amsterdam U21
2017-06-21€200kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-03-01€600kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-06-12€1.5MAjax Amsterdam
2018-10-04€6MAjax Amsterdam
2018-12-28€12MAjax Amsterdam
2019-06-12€18MAjax Amsterdam
2019-09-19€15MAjax Amsterdam
2019-12-18€15MAjax Amsterdam
2020-03-12€12MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€9.5MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-14€14MAjax Amsterdam
2021-01-06€15MAjax Amsterdam
2021-03-09€17MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-19€17MAjax Amsterdam
2021-10-04€18MAjax Amsterdam
2022-01-05€20MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€20MAjax Amsterdam
2022-11-09€25MBayern Munich
2022-12-23€28MBayern Munich
2023-06-22€28MBayern Munich
2023-12-14€30MBayern Munich
2024-05-29€30MBayern Munich
2024-12-16€32MManchester United
2025-05-30€25MManchester United
2025-12-09€22MManchester United
2026-03-09€20MManchester United
2026-06-03€18MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.143

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 50% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mazraoui appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).