FairValue

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Portrait of Eddie Nketiah

Eddie

Nketiah

CFEngland · Crystal Palace

№ 340324Elite €8.8M +0.12

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

EddieNketiah

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
27
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nketiah at €10M. Model A, which never saw Nketiah during training, estimates €8.8M: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.12A €8.8M▲ +2.00B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
1,739
Goals
7
Assists
3
Started
14/48
Min / app
36
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nketiah…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €8.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Eddie Nketiah's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 10th, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 28th69thGoals53rdAssists38thMinutes10thStarts15thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.36 this player0.26 attacker median69th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€8M
Jun 2019
Peak
€35M
Dec 2023
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
1 club change
Jun 2026€10MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-13€8MArsenal FC
2020-03-09€12MArsenal FC
2020-04-08€11MArsenal FC
2020-07-30€15MArsenal FC
2020-10-13€20MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€18MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€16MArsenal FC
2021-10-05€12MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€10MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€16MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€18MArsenal FC
2023-03-16€25MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€25MArsenal FC
2023-10-09€30MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€35MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€30MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€30MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€25MCrystal Palace
2025-03-18€22MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€18MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€16MCrystal Palace
2026-03-09€14MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€10MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.124

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nketiah appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).