FairValue

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Savvas

Mourgos

RWGreece · AE Larisa

№ 340323Emerging €491k −0.20

Player dossierSuper League

SavvasMourgos

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
AE Larisa
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
28
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mourgos at €400k. Model A, which never saw Mourgos during training, estimates €491k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €752k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €491k▼ −0.63B €752k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,206
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
15/24
Min / app
50
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mourgos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €491k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Savvas Mourgos's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 25th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 28th23rdGoals51stAssists25thMinutes56thStarts47thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

63% this player59% attacker median56th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2019
Peak
€500k
May 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
3 club changes
Jun 2026€400kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-02€200kFC Dordrecht
2020-06-29€175kFC Dordrecht
2021-06-28€200kVeria NPS
2021-12-28€200kVeria NPS
2022-02-22€300kVeria NPS
2022-06-27€350kVeria NPS
2023-02-27€400kPanserraikos
2023-06-19€400kPanserraikos
2023-12-20€450kPanserraikos
2024-05-30€400kPanserraikos
2024-12-27€450kAE Larisa
2025-05-16€500kAE Larisa
2025-12-12€450kAE Larisa
2026-06-04€400kAE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.205

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mourgos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).