FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kobe

Cools

CBBelgium · FCV Dender EH

№ 340162Emerging €736k −0.20

Player dossierPro League

KobeCools

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
28
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cools at €600k. Model A, which never saw Cools during training, estimates €736k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €736k▼ −0.91B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
3,965
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
45/49
Min / app
81
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cools…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €736k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kobe Cools's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals39thAssists68thMinutes75thStarts39thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player83% defender median75th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2019
Peak
€800k
Dec 2024
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
Jun 2026€600kFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-07€25kF91 Dudelange
2020-01-15€175kF91 Dudelange
2020-07-21€150kF91 Dudelange
2021-02-12€150kF91 Dudelange
2021-08-11€150kF91 Dudelange
2022-01-15€175kF91 Dudelange
2022-06-29€175kF91 Dudelange
2022-12-22€150kFCV Dender EH
2023-05-30€150kFCV Dender EH
2023-10-02€200kFCV Dender EH
2023-12-28€300kFCV Dender EH
2024-06-20€500kFCV Dender EH
2024-10-02€600kFCV Dender EH
2024-12-11€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€800kFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€600kFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.205

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 13% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cools appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).