FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Altay

Bayındır

GKTürkiye · Manchester United

№ 336077Established €3.5M +0.36

Player dossierPremier League

AltayBayındır

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
28
Height
198 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bayındır at €5M. Model A, which never saw Bayındır during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €713k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.36A €3.5M▲ +1.95B €713k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
1,200
Started
13/13
Min / app
92
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bayındır…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Altay Bayındır's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 79th23rdMinutes62ndStarts21stRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

15% this player0% goalkeeper median79th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2015
Peak
€16M
Oct 2021
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
2 club changes
Jun 2026€5MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-22€25kMKE Ankaragücü
2016-09-01€25kMKE Ankaragücü
2017-06-30€50kMKE Ankaragücü
2018-02-05€50kMKE Ankaragücü
2018-05-30€150kMKE Ankaragücü
2019-01-04€250kMKE Ankaragücü
2019-06-04€600kMKE Ankaragücü
2019-10-04€4MFenerbahce
2020-01-03€6MFenerbahce
2020-04-08€5.4MFenerbahce
2020-08-04€8MFenerbahce
2020-12-23€11MFenerbahce
2021-03-16€13.5MFenerbahce
2021-05-25€14MFenerbahce
2021-10-12€16MFenerbahce
2022-01-04€15MFenerbahce
2022-03-31€15.5MFenerbahce
2022-06-01€16MFenerbahce
2022-09-13€15MFenerbahce
2022-10-27€13MFenerbahce
2023-03-14€13MFenerbahce
2023-06-08€11MFenerbahce
2023-10-09€10MManchester United
2023-12-19€10MManchester United
2024-05-27€10MManchester United
2024-12-16€10MManchester United
2025-05-30€8MManchester United
2025-12-09€7MManchester United
2026-06-03€5MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.360

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 79% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bayındır appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).