FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jean Manuel

Mbom

CMGermany · Viborg FF

№ 335003Emerging €2.1M −0.58

Player dossierSuperliga

Jean ManuelMbom

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Viborg FF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
26
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mbom at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Mbom during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.58A €2.1M▼ −0.84B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
4,050
Goals
1
Assists
5
Started
44/52
Min / app
78
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbom…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jean Manuel Mbom's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 22nd, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 30th22ndGoals57thAssists75thMinutes78thStarts59thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

85% this player69% midfielder median78th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2018
Peak
€3M
Feb 2021
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
22
3 club changes
May 2026€1.2MViborg FFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Viborg FF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-05€200kSV Werder Bremen
2018-12-18€200kSV Werder Bremen
2019-06-05€200kSV Werder Bremen
2019-09-23€500kKFC Uerdingen 05
2019-12-11€500kKFC Uerdingen 05
2020-04-08€450kKFC Uerdingen 05
2020-07-05€450kSV Werder Bremen
2020-11-26€2MSV Werder Bremen
2021-02-10€3MSV Werder Bremen
2021-06-09€3MSV Werder Bremen
2021-12-15€2.5MSV Werder Bremen
2022-03-23€2MSV Werder Bremen
2022-06-16€1.5MSV Werder Bremen
2022-11-09€1.5MSV Werder Bremen
2023-03-29€1MSV Werder Bremen
2023-06-22€800kSV Werder Bremen
2023-12-21€700kViborg FF
2024-06-10€850kViborg FF
2024-12-09€1MViborg FF
2025-06-16€1.2MViborg FF
2025-12-15€1.5MViborg FF
2026-05-25€1.2MViborg FF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.581

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 61% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mbom appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).