FairValue

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Denis

Adamov

GKRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 334477Established €7.7M −0.79

Player dossierPremier Liga

DenisAdamov

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
28
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Adamov at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Adamov during training, estimates €7.7M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €7.7M▲ +0.67B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
4,016
Started
44/45
Min / app
89
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Adamov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €7.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Denis Adamov's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 67th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 32nd67thMinutes19thStarts68thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,520 this player1,560 goalkeeper median68th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2015
Peak
€3.5M
May 2026
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
23
3 club changes
May 2026€3.5MZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-25€100kFC Krasnodar II
2016-12-02€200kFC Krasnodar II
2017-06-01€200kFC Krasnodar II
2018-06-06€200kFC Krasnodar II
2018-12-20€300kFC Krasnodar 2
2019-06-14€450kFC Krasnodar 2
2019-12-23€450kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-04-08€400kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-06-29€400kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-07-29€500kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-12-29€500kFC Krasnodar 2
2021-06-02€500kFC Sochi
2021-12-29€600kFC Sochi
2022-06-02€1MFC Sochi
2022-11-21€800kFC Sochi
2023-06-14€900kFC Sochi
2023-12-13€900kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€900kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€1MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€1MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-09-18€1.8MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-12-16€2.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.789

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 81% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 72% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Adamov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).