FairValue

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Portrait of Joelinton

Joelinton

CMBrazil · Newcastle United

№ 333241Elite €19.8M +0.23

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Joelinton

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
29
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Joelinton at €25M. Model A, which never saw Joelinton during training, estimates €19.8M: the market value is 26% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.23A €19.8M▲ +1.14B €8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
5,419
Goals
10
Assists
5
Started
65/74
Min / app
73
Cards
27Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Joelinton…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €19.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Joelinton's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 73rd76thGoals45thAssists90thMinutes83rdStarts88thRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,419 this player2,607 midfielder median90th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Feb 2015
Peak
€42M
Jun 2023
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
4 club changes
Jun 2026€25MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-01€750kSport Club do Recife
2015-05-31€1.3MSport Club do Recife
2016-02-15€1.3MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2016-07-01€1.3MRapid Vienna
2016-12-22€1.3MRapid Vienna
2017-06-02€1.3MRapid Vienna
2018-01-02€1.3MRapid Vienna
2018-06-14€1.3MRapid Vienna
2018-08-22€2.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-10-22€7MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-12-18€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-03-06€35MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-06-05€35MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-12-10€30MNewcastle United
2020-03-09€25MNewcastle United
2020-04-08€20MNewcastle United
2020-10-13€20MNewcastle United
2021-03-18€17MNewcastle United
2021-06-08€17MNewcastle United
2021-12-23€15MNewcastle United
2022-03-29€18MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€20MNewcastle United
2022-09-15€28MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€32MNewcastle United
2023-03-16€38MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€42MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€42MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€40MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€40MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€35MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€30MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€25MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.234

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Joelinton appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).