FairValue

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Portrait of Mikel Merino

Mikel

Merino

CMSpain · Arsenal FC

№ 338424Elite €28.3M −0.12

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MikelMerino

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Merino at €25M. Model A, which never saw Merino during training, estimates €28.3M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €28.3M▲ +0.41B €16.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,376
Goals
15
Assists
8
Started
47/75
Min / app
58
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Merino…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €28.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mikel Merino's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 96th94thGoals75thAssists79thMinutes38thStarts62ndRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Jan 2015
Peak
€50M
Dec 2021
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
4 club changes
Jun 2026€25MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-08€1MCA Osasuna
2015-07-01€1MCA Osasuna
2016-02-22€2MCA Osasuna
2016-07-22€3MBorussia Dortmund
2017-02-07€3MBorussia Dortmund
2017-06-19€2.5MBorussia Dortmund
2017-10-23€7MNewcastle United
2018-01-02€10MNewcastle United
2018-05-28€10MNewcastle United
2018-07-12€12MReal Sociedad
2018-12-21€8MReal Sociedad
2019-02-28€10MReal Sociedad
2019-06-11€15MReal Sociedad
2019-12-20€20MReal Sociedad
2020-03-05€30MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€24MReal Sociedad
2020-07-23€35MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€35MReal Sociedad
2021-01-05€40MReal Sociedad
2021-06-10€40MReal Sociedad
2021-12-30€50MReal Sociedad
2022-06-03€50MReal Sociedad
2022-11-07€50MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€50MReal Sociedad
2023-12-22€50MReal Sociedad
2024-06-07€50MReal Sociedad
2024-12-16€45MArsenal FC
2025-03-18€35MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€35MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€30MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€25MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.123

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Merino appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).