FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Sander Berge

Sander

Berge

DMNorway · Fulham FC

№ 333014Elite €21.4M +0.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

SanderBerge

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Norway
Age
28
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Berge at €25M. Model A, which never saw Berge during training, estimates €21.4M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €21.4M▲ +0.31B €18.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
5,521
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
64/74
Min / app
75
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Berge…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €21.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sander Berge's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 16th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 30th10thGoals16thAssists91stMinutes81stStarts91stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,014 this player1,541 midfielder median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2015
Peak
€25M
Mar 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Jun 2026€25MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-19€200kVålerenga Fotball Elite
2015-12-27€300kVålerenga Fotball Elite
2016-12-18€800kVålerenga Fotball Elite
2017-01-21€1.5MKRC Genk
2017-03-30€2.5MKRC Genk
2017-06-06€3.5MKRC Genk
2017-10-20€6.5MKRC Genk
2018-01-09€9MKRC Genk
2018-06-03€9MKRC Genk
2018-09-11€12MKRC Genk
2018-12-27€17MKRC Genk
2019-06-10€22MKRC Genk
2019-12-13€22MKRC Genk
2020-04-08€20MSheffield United
2020-10-13€18MSheffield United
2021-03-18€18MSheffield United
2021-06-08€18MSheffield United
2021-11-24€18MSheffield United
2022-05-13€16MSheffield United
2022-10-27€16MSheffield United
2023-03-24€18MSheffield United
2023-06-01€20MSheffield United
2023-12-19€20MBurnley FC
2024-05-27€20MBurnley FC
2024-12-16€20MFulham FC
2025-03-18€25MFulham FC
2025-05-30€25MFulham FC
2025-12-09€25MFulham FC
2026-06-03€25MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.154

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Berge appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).