ManuelLazzari

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: SS Lazio
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 32
Height: 174 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lazzari at €2M. Model A, which never saw Lazzari during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 58
Minutes: 2,900
Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Started: 29/58
Min / app: 50
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lazzari…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.09 this player0.04 defender median75th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €300k; Jul 2014
Peak: €23M; Mar 2021
Model target: €2M; May 2026
Valuations: 31; 2 club changes

May 2026€2MSS LazioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, SS Lazio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2014-07-24	€300k	SPAL 2013
2015-01-21	€275k	SPAL 2013
2015-06-22	€325k	SPAL 2013
2016-01-15	€375k	SPAL 2013
2016-06-17	€425k	SPAL 2013
2016-12-19	€700k	SPAL 2013
2017-06-09	€1.5M	SPAL 2013
2017-12-29	€2.5M	SPAL 2013
2018-06-07	€6M	SPAL 2013
2018-10-12	€10M	SPAL
2018-12-20	€15M	SPAL
2019-06-06	€18M	SPAL
2019-12-12	€18M	SS Lazio
2020-04-08	€14.5M	SS Lazio
2020-08-25	€18M	SS Lazio
2020-12-29	€18M	SS Lazio
2021-03-23	€23M	SS Lazio
2021-05-25	€21M	SS Lazio
2021-10-14	€18M	SS Lazio
2021-12-28	€15M	SS Lazio
2022-06-07	€15M	SS Lazio
2022-11-11	€15M	SS Lazio
2023-06-15	€7.5M	SS Lazio
2023-12-20	€6.5M	SS Lazio
2024-03-12	€5M	SS Lazio
2024-06-05	€4M	SS Lazio
2024-12-18	€4M	SS Lazio
2025-06-17	€3.5M	SS Lazio
2025-12-23	€2.5M	SS Lazio
2026-03-24	€2M	SS Lazio
2026-05-29	€2M	SS Lazio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.144

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 20% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Lazzari appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).