FairValue

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Luis

Chávez

DMMexico · Dynamo Moscow

№ 331059Established €1M +1.75

Player dossierPremier Liga

LuisChávez

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Dynamo Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Mexico
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chávez at €6M. Model A, which never saw Chávez during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 477% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×5.77. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.75A €1M▲ +1.49B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,093
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
25/32
Min / app
65
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chávez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Luis Chávez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th66thGoals77thAssists39thMinutes67thStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.17 this player0.09 midfielder median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2014
Peak
€9M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
27
3 club changes
May 2026€6MDynamo MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Dynamo Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-01€100kClub Tijuana U20
2015-10-01€200kClub Tijuana U20
2016-08-04€400kClub Tijuana U20
2016-12-16€300kClub Tijuana U20
2017-07-31€500kClub Tijuana
2018-04-10€800kClub Tijuana
2018-08-23€1MClub Tijuana
2019-02-08€1.2MClub Tijuana
2019-08-13€1.2MCF Pachuca
2020-01-10€1.2MCF Pachuca
2020-04-08€950kCF Pachuca
2020-06-27€1MCF Pachuca
2020-12-18€2.5MCF Pachuca
2021-04-21€3MCF Pachuca
2021-10-15€3MCF Pachuca
2022-04-11€5MCF Pachuca
2022-09-08€6MCF Pachuca
2022-10-31€6.5MCF Pachuca
2022-12-23€8MCF Pachuca
2023-03-30€8MCF Pachuca
2023-06-29€8MCF Pachuca
2023-12-13€8MDynamo Moscow
2024-06-04€9MDynamo Moscow
2024-12-12€9MDynamo Moscow
2025-06-04€8MDynamo Moscow
2025-12-16€7MDynamo Moscow
2026-05-26€6MDynamo Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.752

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 88% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chávez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).