Diego
Carlos
CBBrazil · Como 1907
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
DiegoCarlos
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Como 1907
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Carlos at €5M. Model A, which never saw Carlos during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 51
- Minutes
- 3,803
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 41/51
- Min / app
- 75
- Cards
- 14Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carlos…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
13% this player0% defender median75th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2015
- Peak
- €50M
- Jul 2020
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 34
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €5M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-07-01 | €100k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2015-10-07 | €500k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2016-02-24 | €1M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2016-07-13 | €2M | FC Nantes |
| 2017-01-16 | €2.5M | FC Nantes |
| 2017-06-01 | €3.5M | FC Nantes |
| 2017-10-12 | €5M | FC Nantes |
| 2018-01-24 | €10M | FC Nantes |
| 2018-06-04 | €10M | FC Nantes |
| 2018-12-17 | €10M | FC Nantes |
| 2019-06-03 | €13M | FC Nantes |
| 2019-09-10 | €15M | Sevilla FC |
| 2019-12-20 | €25M | Sevilla FC |
| 2020-03-05 | €40M | Sevilla FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €32M | Sevilla FC |
| 2020-07-23 | €50M | Sevilla FC |
| 2020-10-08 | €50M | Sevilla FC |
| 2021-01-05 | €50M | Sevilla FC |
| 2021-06-10 | €45M | Sevilla FC |
| 2021-12-30 | €45M | Sevilla FC |
| 2022-06-03 | €40M | Sevilla FC |
| 2022-09-15 | €30M | Aston Villa |
| 2022-11-03 | €30M | Aston Villa |
| 2023-06-20 | €20M | Aston Villa |
| 2023-10-09 | €18M | Aston Villa |
| 2023-12-19 | €16M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-05-27 | €16M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-10-01 | €12M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-12-16 | €11M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-03-20 | €11M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-06-18 | €9.5M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-12-23 | €8.5M | Como 1907 |
| 2026-03-24 | €6M | Como 1907 |
| 2026-05-29 | €5M | Como 1907 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.351
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Carlos appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PolitanoRWSSC Napoli · Serie A€5M
- DybalaSSAS Roma · Serie A€5M
- MartínLBGenoa CFC · Serie A€5M
- CutroneCFParma Calcio 1913 · Serie A€5M
- OrbánCBRB Leipzig · defenders€5M
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · defenders€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · defenders€5M
- TarkowskiCBEverton FC · defenders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).