FairValue

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Portrait of Robin Koch

Robin

Koch

CBGermany · Eintracht Frankfurt

№ 328784Elite €8.6M +0.16

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

RobinKoch

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Eintracht Frankfurt
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
29
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koch at €10M. Model A, which never saw Koch during training, estimates €8.6M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €8.6M▼ −0.18B €12M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
7,490
Goals
6
Assists
5
Started
85/85
Min / app
88
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koch…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €8.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Robin Koch's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 86th76thGoals63rdAssists99thMinutes97thStarts98thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,490 this player2,860 defender median99th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2014
Peak
€18M
Dec 2019
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
28
6 club changes
May 2026€10MEintracht FrankfurtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Eintracht Frankfurt. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-07-30€25kSV Eintracht Trier 05 II
2015-01-18€75kSV Eintracht Trier 05
2015-07-19€75k1.FC Kaiserslautern II
2016-02-13€100k1.FC Kaiserslautern II
2016-08-09€100k1.FC Kaiserslautern II
2017-01-23€550k1.FC Kaiserslautern
2017-06-27€800k1.FC Kaiserslautern
2017-10-18€3MSC Freiburg
2017-12-28€4MSC Freiburg
2018-06-05€7MSC Freiburg
2018-12-18€10MSC Freiburg
2019-06-05€10MSC Freiburg
2019-12-17€18MSC Freiburg
2020-04-08€14.5MSC Freiburg
2020-07-08€17MSC Freiburg
2020-10-13€17MLeeds United
2021-03-18€17MLeeds United
2021-06-01€17MLeeds United
2021-12-23€17MLeeds United
2022-06-15€16MLeeds United
2022-11-03€18MLeeds United
2023-06-20€18MLeeds United
2023-12-14€18MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€18MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-20€18MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-06-05€18MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-12-19€15MEintracht Frankfurt
2026-05-27€10MEintracht Frankfurt

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.156

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 65% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koch appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).