Barnabás
Varga
CFHungary · AEK Athens
Player dossierSuper League
BarnabásVarga
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- AEK Athens
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Hungary
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Varga at €4M. Model A, which never saw Varga during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 24
- Minutes
- 1,656
- Goals
- 15
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 19/24
- Min / app
- 69
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Varga…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.82 this player0.26 attacker median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Dec 2016
- Peak
- €4M
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 22
- 6 club changes
Jun 2026: €4M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-22 | €100k | SV Mattersburg |
| 2017-06-02 | €75k | SV Mattersburg |
| 2018-01-02 | €75k | SV Mattersburg II (-2020) |
| 2018-12-19 | €100k | SV Mattersburg II (-2020) |
| 2019-06-01 | €175k | SV Lafnitz |
| 2019-12-03 | €250k | SV Lafnitz |
| 2020-07-28 | €225k | Gyirmót FC Győr |
| 2021-01-24 | €225k | Gyirmót FC Győr |
| 2021-06-01 | €250k | Gyirmót FC Győr |
| 2022-01-07 | €325k | Gyirmót FC Győr |
| 2022-06-07 | €400k | Gyirmót FC Győr |
| 2022-10-11 | €600k | Paksi FC |
| 2023-02-22 | €750k | Paksi FC |
| 2023-06-07 | €900k | Paksi FC |
| 2023-12-22 | €2M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2024-05-23 | €2.5M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2024-12-23 | €2.5M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2025-05-28 | €2.2M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2025-10-07 | €2.5M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2025-12-08 | €3M | Ferencvárosi TC |
| 2026-03-06 | €4M | AEK Athens |
| 2026-06-04 | €4M | AEK Athens |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.022
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 89% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Varga appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PodenceLWOlympiacos Piraeus · Super League€4M
- MarinCMAEK Athens · Super League€4M
- TaylorLBPAOK Thessaloniki · Super League€4M
- MichailidisCBPAOK Thessaloniki · Super League€4M
- IcardiCFGalatasaray · attackers€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · attackers€4M
- TraoréRWSunderland AFC · attackers€4M
- GrifoLWSC Freiburg · attackers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).