FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Fotis Ioannidis

Fotis

Ioannidis

CFGreece · Sporting CP

№ 532444Elite €7.5M +0.76

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

FotisIoannidis

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Greece
Age
26
Height
187 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ioannidis at €16M. Model A, which never saw Ioannidis during training, estimates €7.5M: the market value is 114% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.76A €7.5M▲ +1.25B €4.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,223
Goals
10
Assists
3
Started
34/54
Min / app
60
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ioannidis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €16MModel A €7.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Fotis Ioannidis's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 53rd, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 89th53rdGoals25thAssists70thMinutes56thStarts41stRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

25% this player0% attacker median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2017
Peak
€22M
Sept 2025
Model target
€16M
May 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
May 2026€16MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €16M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-18€50kLevadiakos
2018-05-22€150kLevadiakos
2018-12-07€150kLevadiakos
2019-05-21€300kLevadiakos
2020-10-12€400kPanathinaikos
2021-02-12€600kPanathinaikos
2021-05-30€800kPanathinaikos
2021-11-01€800kPanathinaikos
2022-06-09€1.2MPanathinaikos
2022-11-07€1.2MPanathinaikos
2023-02-27€1.5MPanathinaikos
2023-05-22€2.5MPanathinaikos
2023-09-21€3.5MPanathinaikos
2023-12-20€9MPanathinaikos
2024-03-06€10MPanathinaikos
2024-05-30€13MPanathinaikos
2024-09-26€18MPanathinaikos
2024-12-18€18MPanathinaikos
2025-05-23€15MPanathinaikos
2025-09-30€22MSporting CP
2025-12-18€20MSporting CP
2026-03-19€18MSporting CP
2026-05-28€16MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.760

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 91% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 84% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ioannidis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).