ArmandoIzzo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: AC Monza
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 33
Height: 183 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Izzo at €1.3M. Model A, which never saw Izzo during training, estimates €613k: the market value is 112% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €485k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 51
Minutes: 3,909
Goals: 1
Assists: 1
Started: 45/51
Min / app: 77
Cards: 20Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Izzo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.3M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,909 this player2,860 defender median68th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Nov 2010
Peak: €25M; Dec 2019
Model target: €1.3M; Dec 2025
Valuations: 36; 5 club changes

Dec 2025€1.3MAC MonzaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.3M, AC Monza. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2010-11-16	€50k	Napoli Primavera
2011-05-26	€100k	Napoli Primavera
2011-12-09	€175k	SSC Napoli
2012-04-29	€150k	AS Avellino 1912
2013-03-01	€200k	AS Avellino 1912
2013-06-23	€300k	AS Avellino 1912
2014-01-29	€800k	AS Avellino 1912
2014-07-15	€1M	Genoa CFC
2015-01-07	€1.5M	Genoa CFC
2015-07-01	€2M	Genoa CFC
2016-01-04	€2M	Genoa CFC
2016-07-15	€3.5M	Genoa CFC
2016-10-14	€5M	Genoa CFC
2017-01-02	€6.5M	Genoa CFC
2017-06-08	€6M	Genoa CFC
2017-12-29	€6M	Genoa CFC
2018-06-07	€8.5M	Genoa CFC
2018-12-20	€10M	Torino FC
2019-03-01	€15M	Torino FC
2019-06-06	€20M	Torino FC
2019-12-12	€25M	Torino FC
2020-03-03	€20M	Torino FC
2020-04-08	€16M	Torino FC
2020-08-25	€15M	Torino FC
2020-12-29	€10M	Torino FC
2021-06-03	€10M	Torino FC
2021-12-28	€5M	Torino FC
2022-03-15	€3M	Torino FC
2022-06-07	€2.8M	Torino FC
2022-11-11	€2.8M	AC Monza
2023-06-15	€3M	AC Monza
2023-12-20	€2.5M	AC Monza
2024-06-05	€2.5M	AC Monza
2024-12-18	€2.5M	AC Monza
2025-06-17	€1.5M	AC Monza
2025-12-11	€1.3M	AC Monza

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.751

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 13% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 42% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Izzo appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).