FairValue

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Portrait of Martin Ødegaard

Martin

Ødegaard

AMNorway · Arsenal FC

№ 316264World Class €43.9M +0.39

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MartinØdegaard

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Norway
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ødegaard at €65M. Model A, which never saw Ødegaard during training, estimates €43.9M: the market value is 48% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €43.9M▲ +1.43B €15.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
5,169
Goals
7
Assists
18
Started
58/77
Min / app
67
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ødegaard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €65M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €65MModel A €43.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Martin Ødegaard's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 96th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 88th63rdGoals96thAssists88thMinutes61stStarts62ndRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.09 midfielder median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Aug 2014
Peak
€110M
May 2024
Model target
€65M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
6 club changes
Jun 2026€65MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €65M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-02€1.5MStrømsgodset IF
2014-12-07€4MStrømsgodset IF
2015-01-23€4MReal Madrid Castilla
2016-08-01€2.5MReal Madrid Castilla
2016-10-27€2MReal Madrid Castilla
2017-01-18€2MSC Heerenveen
2017-06-07€1.5MSC Heerenveen
2018-01-17€3.5MSC Heerenveen
2018-06-12€4MSC Heerenveen
2018-12-28€4MVitesse Arnhem
2019-03-13€8MVitesse Arnhem
2019-06-12€15MVitesse Arnhem
2019-09-10€20MReal Sociedad
2019-12-20€50MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€45MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€45MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€40MReal Madrid
2021-03-18€40MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€40MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€42MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€45MArsenal FC
2022-09-15€50MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€60MArsenal FC
2023-03-16€80MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€90MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€90MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€95MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€110MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€110MArsenal FC
2025-03-18€100MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€85MArsenal FC
2025-10-17€80MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€75MArsenal FC
2026-03-09€65MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€65MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.391

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 93% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ødegaard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).