Léo
Duarte
CBBrazil · Basaksehir FK
Player dossierSüper Lig
LéoDuarte
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Basaksehir FK
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Duarte at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Duarte during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 66
- Minutes
- 5,629
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 65/66
- Min / app
- 85
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Duarte…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
98% this player83% defender median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Nov 2016
- Peak
- €8M
- Aug 2019
- Model target
- €2.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 30
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €2.5M, Basaksehir FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-28 | €250k | CR Flamengo |
| 2017-12-07 | €200k | CR Flamengo |
| 2018-05-23 | €500k | CR Flamengo |
| 2019-02-18 | €4M | CR Flamengo |
| 2019-08-15 | €8M | AC Milan |
| 2019-12-12 | €7.5M | AC Milan |
| 2020-04-08 | €6M | AC Milan |
| 2020-08-25 | €5M | AC Milan |
| 2020-12-29 | €3M | AC Milan |
| 2021-03-16 | €2.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2021-05-21 | €2.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2021-10-12 | €1.9M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2022-01-04 | €2.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2022-03-31 | €2.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2022-06-01 | €2.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2022-09-13 | €2.5M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2022-10-27 | €3.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2023-03-14 | €3.2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2023-06-08 | €3.4M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2023-09-27 | €3.3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2023-12-21 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-03-15 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-05-31 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-10-04 | €3.3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-12-23 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-03-20 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-06-18 | €3M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-10-01 | €2.8M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-12-17 | €2.5M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2026-05-21 | €2.5M | Basaksehir FK |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.250
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 68% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Duarte appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BénesCMKayserispor · Süper Lig€2.5M
- KemenCMBasaksehir FK · Süper Lig€2.5M
- BardhiAMKonyaspor · Süper Lig€2.5M
- LisGKGöztepe · Süper Lig€2.5M
- GraditCBRC Lens · defenders€2.5M
- MainkaCB1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · defenders€2.5M
- CoufalRBTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · defenders€2.5M
- StarkCBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).