NikolaSipcic

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Asteras Aktor
League: Super League
Nationality: Montenegro
Age: 31
Height: 192 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sipcic at €400k. Model A, which never saw Sipcic during training, estimates €454k: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €394k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 15
Minutes: 1,346
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 15/15
Min / app: 90
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sipcic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Dec 2016
Peak: €600k; Jun 2023
Model target: €400k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 22; 3 club changes

Jun 2026€400kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-12-18	€100k	FK Rad
2017-05-04	€100k	FK Rad
2018-01-10	€300k	FK Rad
2018-07-02	€300k	FK Rad
2019-01-14	€350k	FK Rad
2019-06-09	€450k	FK Rad
2019-09-10	€500k	CD Tenerife
2019-12-20	€400k	CD Tenerife
2020-04-08	€325k	CD Tenerife
2020-10-08	€300k	CD Tenerife
2021-01-08	€400k	CD Tenerife
2021-06-24	€500k	CD Tenerife
2021-12-27	€500k	CD Tenerife
2022-06-29	€500k	CD Tenerife
2022-12-29	€500k	CD Tenerife
2023-06-14	€600k	CD Tenerife
2023-12-20	€600k	CD Tenerife
2024-06-24	€600k	CD Tenerife
2024-12-13	€600k	FC Cartagena
2025-06-24	€400k	FC Cartagena
2025-12-12	€400k	Asteras Aktor
2026-06-04	€400k	Asteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.127

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Sipcic appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).