FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Lion

Lauberbach

CFGermany · KV Mechelen

№ 307800Emerging €1.9M −0.10

Player dossierPro League

LionLauberbach

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
KV Mechelen
League
Pro League
Nationality
Germany
Age
27
Height
194 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
10 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Lauberbach at €1.7M. Model A, which never saw Lauberbach during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 9% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €1.9M▲ +0.06B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,336
Goals
8
Assists
4
Started
37/52
Min / app
64
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lauberbach…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.7MModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Lion Lauberbach's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 69th, European club minutes 28th40thGoals35thAssists71stMinutes70thStarts69thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,336 this player2,242 attacker median71st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€1.7M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.7M
Dec 2025
Valuations
21
5 club changes
Dec 2025€1.7MKV MechelenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.7M, KV Mechelen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-18€50kRot-Weiß Erfurt
2017-10-19€125kRot-Weiß Erfurt
2018-01-19€125kRot-Weiß Erfurt
2018-06-08€175kRot-Weiß Erfurt
2019-01-15€200kFSV Zwickau
2019-06-14€300kFSV Zwickau
2019-12-13€300kHolstein Kiel
2020-07-15€350kHolstein Kiel
2021-01-20€300kFC Hansa Rostock
2021-06-14€275kFC Hansa Rostock
2021-12-30€350kEintracht Braunschweig
2022-06-01€450kEintracht Braunschweig
2022-11-30€450kEintracht Braunschweig
2023-06-28€600kEintracht Braunschweig
2023-10-23€900kKV Mechelen
2023-12-19€900kKV Mechelen
2024-03-22€700kKV Mechelen
2024-06-04€650kKV Mechelen
2024-12-11€800kKV Mechelen
2025-06-12€1MKV Mechelen
2025-12-10€1.7MKV Mechelen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.099

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 47% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 42% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lauberbach appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).