FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Frankie

Kent

CBEngland · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 307094Emerging €1.1M −1.03

Player dossierPremiership

FrankieKent

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
30
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kent at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kent during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 64% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.03A €1.1M▼ −1.11B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
2,276
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
24/33
Min / app
69
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kent…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Frankie Kent's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 70th79thGoals17thAssists39thMinutes31stStarts26thRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.03 defender median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2014
Peak
€1.2M
May 2024
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
May 2026€400kHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-23€50kColchester United
2015-02-27€50kColchester United
2016-05-30€75kColchester United
2016-08-05€75kColchester United
2021-06-30€350kPeterborough United
2021-11-24€400kPeterborough United
2022-05-13€400kPeterborough United
2023-04-05€700kPeterborough United
2023-06-09€700kPeterborough United
2023-12-05€900kHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-03-20€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-05-30€1.2MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-12-03€1.2MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-03-12€900kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-06-17€800kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-10-08€600kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-12-10€500kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-03-05€400kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€400kHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.033

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 50% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kent appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).