Mikel
Vesga
DMSpain · Athletic Bilbao
Player dossierLaLiga
MikelVesga
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Athletic Bilbao
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Vesga at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Vesga during training, estimates €951k: the market value is 26% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 2,032
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 16/67
- Min / app
- 30
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vesga…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
18% this player0% midfielder median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Jul 2015
- Peak
- €6M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €1.2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €1.2M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-07-01 | €500k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2016-02-22 | €700k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2016-07-15 | €800k | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2017-01-24 | €800k | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2017-06-05 | €1.5M | Sporting Gijón |
| 2017-08-17 | €5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2018-01-01 | €5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2018-05-30 | €2.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2018-10-31 | €3M | CD Leganés |
| 2018-12-21 | €3M | CD Leganés |
| 2019-06-11 | €4M | CD Leganés |
| 2019-12-20 | €3M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.4M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2020-10-08 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2021-01-05 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2021-06-10 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2021-12-30 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2022-06-03 | €3M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2022-11-07 | €5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-06-13 | €6M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-12-22 | €5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-06-07 | €4M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-12-27 | €3M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-06-09 | €2.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-12-12 | €1.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2026-06-05 | €1.2M | Athletic Bilbao |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.233
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Vesga appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BlindCBGirona FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- WitselDMGirona FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- SánchezSSSevilla FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- PortuRWGirona FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · midfielders€1.2M
- CabellaAMFC Nantes · midfielders€1.2M
- OzdoevDMPAOK Thessaloniki · midfielders€1.2M
- YokuşluDMTrabzonspor · midfielders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).