FairValue

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Pol

Lirola

RBSpain · Hellas Verona

№ 298975Emerging €856k +0.56

Player dossierSerie A

PolLirola

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Hellas Verona
League
Serie A
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lirola at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Lirola during training, estimates €856k: the market value is 75% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €655k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.56A €856k▲ +0.83B €655k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
1,011
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
8/28
Min / app
36
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lirola…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €856k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Pol Lirola's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 8th, European club minutes 30th83rdGoals93rdAssists12thMinutes1stStarts8thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.18 this player0.04 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Mar 2015
Peak
€13M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
30
7 club changes
May 2026€1.5MHellas VeronaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Hellas Verona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-03-02€200kJuventus Primavera
2015-06-17€200kJuventus Primavera
2016-06-07€500kJuventus Primavera
2016-10-14€1.5MUS Sassuolo
2017-01-02€2.5MUS Sassuolo
2017-06-08€4MUS Sassuolo
2017-12-29€5MUS Sassuolo
2018-06-07€7.5MUS Sassuolo
2018-10-12€10MUS Sassuolo
2018-12-20€10MUS Sassuolo
2019-06-06€13MUS Sassuolo
2019-12-12€12MACF Fiorentina
2020-04-08€9.5MACF Fiorentina
2020-08-25€10MACF Fiorentina
2020-12-29€8MACF Fiorentina
2021-06-04€9MOlympique Marseille
2021-12-16€9MOlympique Marseille
2022-05-30€8MOlympique Marseille
2022-09-23€6MElche CF
2022-11-07€3MElche CF
2023-03-23€2.5MElche CF
2023-06-13€2MElche CF
2023-12-20€2MFrosinone Calcio
2024-06-05€1.8MFrosinone Calcio
2024-10-07€2.5MOlympique Marseille
2024-12-10€4MOlympique Marseille
2025-06-03€4MOlympique Marseille
2025-10-10€3MOlympique Marseille
2025-12-15€2MOlympique Marseille
2026-05-29€1.5MHellas Verona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.561

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lirola appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).