Ilya
Petrov
CMRussia · Baltika Kaliningrad
Player dossierPremier Liga
IlyaPetrov
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Russia
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Petrov at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Petrov during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 15% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €904k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 28
- Minutes
- 1,978
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 26/28
- Min / app
- 71
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Petrov…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
93% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Jun 2015
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €1.2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 8 club changes
May 2026: €1.2M, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-06-11 | €150k | Volga Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2016-01-10 | €150k | Volga Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2016-07-01 | €250k | Dinamo Moscow |
| 2016-12-27 | €250k | Mordovia Saransk (-2020) |
| 2017-06-01 | €350k | Mordovia Saransk (-2020) |
| 2018-06-06 | €300k | UD Leiria |
| 2018-10-15 | €350k | Mordovia Saransk (-2020) |
| 2018-12-20 | €500k | Mordovia Saransk (-2020) |
| 2019-06-14 | €500k | Mordovia Saransk (-2020) |
| 2019-12-23 | €600k | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk |
| 2020-04-08 | €475k | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk |
| 2020-06-29 | €500k | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk |
| 2020-12-29 | €600k | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk |
| 2021-05-24 | €600k | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk |
| 2021-12-07 | €500k | Kuban Krasnodar |
| 2022-05-30 | €500k | Kuban Krasnodar |
| 2022-12-08 | €600k | SKA Khabarovsk |
| 2023-06-19 | €500k | SKA Khabarovsk |
| 2023-11-30 | €500k | SKA Khabarovsk |
| 2024-06-14 | €600k | SKA Khabarovsk |
| 2024-12-04 | €700k | Baltika Kaliningrad |
| 2025-06-02 | €800k | Baltika Kaliningrad |
| 2025-09-18 | €1M | Baltika Kaliningrad |
| 2025-12-16 | €1.2M | Baltika Kaliningrad |
| 2026-05-26 | €1.2M | Baltika Kaliningrad |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.167
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Petrov appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ZhemaletdinovAMAkhmat Grozny · Premier Liga€1.2M
- BogosavacLBAkhmat Grozny · Premier Liga€1.2M
- RasskazovRBKrylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga€1.2M
- FilinCBBaltika Kaliningrad · Premier Liga€1.2M
- WitselDMGirona FC · midfielders€1.2M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · midfielders€1.2M
- CabellaAMFC Nantes · midfielders€1.2M
- OzdoevDMPAOK Thessaloniki · midfielders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).