FairValue

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Lukasz

Fabianski

GKPoland · West Ham United

№ 29692Emerging €248k −0.50

Player dossierPremier League

LukaszFabianski

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
West Ham United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Poland
Age
41
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fabianski at €150k. Model A, which never saw Fabianski during training, estimates €248k: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €92k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €248k▲ +0.49B €92k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
1,341
Started
15/16
Min / app
84
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fabianski…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €248k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Lukasz Fabianski's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd26thMinutes11thStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Feb 2005
Peak
€9M
Aug 2016
Model target
€150k
Jun 2026
Valuations
47
3 club changes
Jun 2026€150kWest Ham UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €150k, West Ham United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2005-02-27€300kLegia Warszawa
2005-07-30€750kLegia Warszawa
2005-10-12€950kLegia Warszawa
2005-12-10€1.3MLegia Warszawa
2006-03-17€1.5MLegia Warszawa
2006-05-16€2.5MLegia Warszawa
2007-09-01€4.5MArsenal FC
2007-11-01€4.3MArsenal FC
2008-02-04€3MArsenal FC
2008-07-04€2.5MArsenal FC
2009-02-23€3MArsenal FC
2010-01-25€2.5MArsenal FC
2010-08-13€2MArsenal FC
2011-02-01€4MArsenal FC
2011-08-08€4MArsenal FC
2012-02-06€3MArsenal FC
2012-06-24€2.5MArsenal FC
2013-01-28€1.5MArsenal FC
2013-07-02€2MArsenal FC
2014-01-15€2MArsenal FC
2014-08-12€2.5MSwansea City
2015-02-12€4MSwansea City
2015-07-01€7MSwansea City
2016-02-09€7MSwansea City
2016-06-01€7MSwansea City
2016-08-01€9MSwansea City
2017-02-20€9MSwansea City
2017-06-28€9MSwansea City
2018-01-02€5MSwansea City
2018-05-28€5MSwansea City
2018-12-19€5MWest Ham United
2019-06-13€5MWest Ham United
2019-12-10€4MWest Ham United
2020-04-08€3.2MWest Ham United
2020-10-13€2.5MWest Ham United
2021-03-18€1.5MWest Ham United
2021-05-31€1.5MWest Ham United
2021-12-23€1MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€1MWest Ham United
2022-11-03€1MWest Ham United
2023-06-20€900kWest Ham United
2023-12-19€700kWest Ham United
2024-05-27€700kWest Ham United
2024-12-16€700kWest Ham United
2025-05-30€500kWest Ham United
2025-12-09€250kWest Ham United
2026-06-03€150kWest Ham United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.502

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

The lowest observed value among 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 6% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fabianski appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).