FairValue

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Kasper

Schmeichel

GKDenmark · Celtic FC

№ 16911Emerging €521k −1.24

Player dossierPremiership

KasperSchmeichel

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Celtic FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Denmark
Age
39
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Schmeichel at €150k. Model A, which never saw Schmeichel during training, estimates €521k: the market value is 71% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €813k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.24A €521k▼ −1.69B €813k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
7,260
Started
80/80
Min / app
91
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Schmeichel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €521k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Kasper Schmeichel's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 91st95thMinutes62ndStarts91stRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,260 this player2,790 goalkeeper median95th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2004
Peak
€12M
Jul 2018
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
37
5 club changes
May 2026€150kCeltic FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2004-10-04€250kManchester City Reserves
2007-07-29€500kManchester City
2008-01-29€1MManchester City
2012-02-07€2MLeicester City
2012-06-22€2.5MLeicester City
2013-03-02€2.5MLeicester City
2013-07-11€3.5MLeicester City
2014-01-08€3.5MLeicester City
2014-08-12€3.5MLeicester City
2015-02-12€3.5MLeicester City
2015-07-01€4.5MLeicester City
2016-02-09€5MLeicester City
2016-08-01€8MLeicester City
2017-02-20€8MLeicester City
2017-06-28€10MLeicester City
2018-01-02€10MLeicester City
2018-05-28€10MLeicester City
2018-07-16€12MLeicester City
2018-12-19€12MLeicester City
2019-06-13€12MLeicester City
2019-12-10€12MLeicester City
2020-04-08€9.5MLeicester City
2020-10-13€8MLeicester City
2021-03-18€8MLeicester City
2021-05-26€6MLeicester City
2021-12-23€4MLeicester City
2022-06-15€4MLeicester City
2022-11-02€2.5MOGC Nice
2023-06-27€2MOGC Nice
2023-10-23€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2023-12-19€1MRSC Anderlecht
2024-06-04€1MRSC Anderlecht
2024-12-03€750kCeltic FC
2025-06-17€500kCeltic FC
2025-10-08€300kCeltic FC
2025-12-10€300kCeltic FC
2026-05-20€150kCeltic FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.244

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 18% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 6% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Schmeichel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).