FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Răzvan

Marin

CMRomania · AEK Athens

№ 295183Established €4.7M −0.15

Player dossierSuper League

RăzvanMarin

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Romania
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Marin at €4M. Model A, which never saw Marin during training, estimates €4.7M: the market value is 14% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.15A €4.7M▲ +0.44B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
3,662
Goals
7
Assists
10
Started
38/67
Min / app
55
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €4.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Răzvan Marin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 72nd77thGoals91stAssists68thMinutes30thStarts68thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.25 this player0.09 midfielder median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2013
Peak
€15M
Jun 2021
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
7 club changes
Jun 2026€4MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-28€50kFC Viitorul Constanta U19
2014-03-28€50kFC Viitorul Constanta
2014-06-12€200kFC Viitorul Constanta
2014-12-15€200kFC Viitorul Constanta
2015-03-23€300kFC Viitorul Constanta
2015-06-01€500kFC Viitorul Constanta
2015-12-22€750kFC Viitorul Constanta
2016-06-01€1.3MFC Viitorul Constanta
2016-12-21€2MFC Viitorul Constanta
2017-06-06€2MStandard Liège
2018-01-09€2.5MStandard Liège
2018-03-30€4MStandard Liège
2018-06-03€7MStandard Liège
2018-12-27€7MStandard Liège
2019-03-04€9MStandard Liège
2019-06-10€13.5MStandard Liège
2019-12-18€12MAjax Amsterdam
2020-03-12€10MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€8MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-29€10MCagliari Calcio
2020-12-29€10MCagliari Calcio
2021-03-23€12MCagliari Calcio
2021-06-03€15MCagliari Calcio
2021-12-28€14MCagliari Calcio
2022-06-07€12MCagliari Calcio
2022-09-27€9MFC Empoli
2022-11-11€8MFC Empoli
2023-06-15€8MFC Empoli
2023-10-11€5MFC Empoli
2023-12-20€2.5MFC Empoli
2024-06-05€2.7MFC Empoli
2024-07-18€3.5MCagliari Calcio
2024-12-18€4MCagliari Calcio
2025-03-25€3.5MCagliari Calcio
2025-06-17€3.5MCagliari Calcio
2025-09-23€3MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€3MAEK Athens
2026-03-06€3.5MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€4MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.152

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 89% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Marin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).