FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Koji

Miyoshi

RMJapan · VfL Bochum

№ 295060Emerging €999k 0.00

Player dossierBundesliga

KojiMiyoshi

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
VfL Bochum
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Japan
Age
28
Height
167 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Miyoshi at €1M. Model A, which never saw Miyoshi during training, estimates €999k: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €557k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ 0.00A €999k▲ +0.59B €557k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
488
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
6/16
Min / app
31
Cards
0Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Miyoshi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €999k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Koji Miyoshi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 10th, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 30th80thGoals8thAssists1stMinutes10thStarts4thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.18 this player0.08 midfielder median80th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2015
Peak
€3M
Oct 2021
Model target
€1M
Dec 2025
Valuations
23
5 club changes
Dec 2025€1MVfL BochumValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1M, VfL Bochum. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-12€50kKawasaki Frontale
2015-07-01€100kKawasaki Frontale
2016-02-25€150kKawasaki Frontale
2017-03-25€300kKawasaki Frontale
2018-01-05€250kKawasaki Frontale
2019-01-05€700kHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
2019-06-27€900kYokohama F. Marinos
2019-12-13€1.3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-03-30€1.6MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-04-08€1.3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-10-16€1.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-01-04€2MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-06-07€2MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-10-06€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-01-06€2.8MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-04-12€2.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-11-04€2.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2023-06-09€2.2MRoyal Antwerp FC
2023-12-21€2MBirmingham City
2024-05-24€2MBirmingham City
2024-12-20€1.8MVfL Bochum
2025-06-05€1.5MVfL Bochum
2025-12-16€1MVfL Bochum

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.001

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Miyoshi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).