FairValue

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Onur

Ergün

DMTürkiye · Basaksehir FK

№ 293998Emerging €366k −0.89

Player dossierSüper Lig

OnurErgün

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Basaksehir FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
33
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ergün at €150k. Model A, which never saw Ergün during training, estimates €366k: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €842k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.89A €366k▼ −1.73B €842k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
1,994
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
22/45
Min / app
44
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ergün…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €366k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Onur Ergün's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 26th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 96th10thGoals26thAssists36thMinutes20thStarts9thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2015
Peak
€1.5M
Mar 2022
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
33
3 club changes
May 2026€150kBasaksehir FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, Basaksehir FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-22€25kIstanbulspor
2016-09-01€300kIstanbulspor
2017-06-30€200kIstanbulspor
2018-02-05€200kIstanbulspor
2018-05-30€150kIstanbulspor
2019-01-07€125kIstanbulspor
2019-06-17€125kIstanbulspor
2019-10-16€150kIstanbulspor
2020-02-04€275kIstanbulspor
2020-08-27€400kIstanbulspor
2020-10-12€550kIstanbulspor
2020-12-30€800kIstanbulspor
2021-03-23€850kIstanbulspor
2021-06-02€925kIstanbulspor
2021-10-12€1.1MHatayspor
2022-01-04€1MHatayspor
2022-03-31€1.5MHatayspor
2022-06-01€1.5MHatayspor
2022-10-27€1.2MHatayspor
2023-03-14€1MIstanbulspor
2023-06-08€850kIstanbulspor
2023-09-27€750kBasaksehir FK
2023-12-21€650kBasaksehir FK
2024-03-15€600kBasaksehir FK
2024-05-31€500kBasaksehir FK
2024-10-04€500kBasaksehir FK
2024-12-23€500kBasaksehir FK
2025-03-20€400kBasaksehir FK
2025-06-18€325kBasaksehir FK
2025-10-01€300kBasaksehir FK
2025-12-17€250kBasaksehir FK
2026-03-05€200kBasaksehir FK
2026-05-21€150kBasaksehir FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.892

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 4% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 2% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ergün appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).